Alexander Timans

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Last updated: February 2025

About me

I am an ELLIS PhD candidate at the University of Amsterdam in the Machine Learning Lab, jointly supervised by Eric Nalisnick (from Johns Hopkins) and Christian Naesseth. I am part of the Delta Lab, a research collaboration with the Bosch Center for Artificial Intelligence. In that context, I am also advised by Bosch research scientists Christoph-Nikolas Straehle and Kaspar Sakmann.

My research interests focus on principled and efficient uncertainty quantification for deep learning, with the aim of reliable model reasoning and decision-making. Primarily, this involves probabilistic modelling via statistical frameworks such as conformal prediction, risk control or e-values, but also Bayesian principles. I am also interested in connections to other notions of model reliability such as calibration and forecaster scoring, robustness and generalization, or interpretability. Applications of interest include computer vision, time series, and online or stream settings.

I graduated with an MSc in Statistics from ETH Zurich, specialising in machine learning and computational statistics. My master thesis with the MIE Lab was on uncertainty quantification in traffic prediction (see here). I obtained a BSc in Industrial Engineering from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), focusing on statistics and finance.

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Research Updates
Research Projects
Max-Rank: Efficient Multiple Testing for Conformal Prediction
Alexander Timans, Christoph-Nikolas Straehle, Kaspar Sakmann, Eric Nalisnick

Int'l Conference on Artifical Intelligence and Statistics (AISTATS), 2025
Links: Paper

We propose max-rank, a simple multiple testing correction based on rank permutations that is particularly suitable for multiple testing issues arising in conformal prediction, e.g. for multi-output regression.

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Fast yet Safe: Early-Exiting with Risk Control
Metod Jazbec*, Alexander Timans*, Tin Hadzi Veljkovic, Kaspar Sakmann, Dan Zhang, Christian A. Naesseth, Eric Nalisnick

Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS), 2024
Also in: ICML Workshops on Structured Probabilistic Inference and Generative Modelling & Efficient Systems for Foundation Models
* Equal contribution

Links: Paper | Code | Poster

We investigate how to adapt frameworks of risk control to early-exit neural networks, providing a distribution-free, post-hoc solution that tunes the EENN’s exiting mechanism so that exits only occur when the output is guaranteed to satisfy user-specified performance goals.

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Adaptive Bounding Box Uncertainties via Two-Step Conformal Prediction
Alexander Timans, Christoph-Nikolas Straehle, Kaspar Sakmann, Eric Nalisnick

European Conference on Computer Vision (ECCV) Oral, 2024
Also in: ECCV Workshop on Uncertainty Quantification for CV
Links: Paper | Code | Poster

We propose a two-step conformal approach that propagates uncertainty in predicted class labels into the uncertainty intervals of bounding boxes. This broadens the validity of conformal coverage guarantees to include incorrectly classified objects. This work builds on our workshop paper.

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Conformal time series decomposition with component-wise exchangeability
Derck Prinzhorn, Thijmen Nijdam, Putri van der Linden, Alexander Timans

Conformal and Probabilistic Prediction with Applications (PLMR), 2024
Links: Paper | Code

We present a novel use of conformal prediction for time series forecasting that incorporates time series decomposition, allowing us to customize employed methods to account for the different exchangeability regimes underlying each time series component.

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Adaptive Bounding Box Uncertainty via Conformal Prediction
Alexander Timans, Christoph-Nikolas Straehle, Kaspar Sakmann, Eric Nalisnick

ICCV Workshop on Uncertainty Quantification for CV, 2023
Links: Paper

We quantify the uncertainty in multi-object 2D bounding box predictions via conformal prediction, producing tight prediction intervals with guaranteed per-class coverage for the bounding box coordinates.

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Uncertainty Quantification for Image-based Traffic Prediction across Cities
Alexander Timans, Nina Wiedemann, Nishant Kumar, Ye Hong, Martin Raubal

Master Thesis (arXiv), 2023
Links: Paper | Code

We explore different uncertainty quantification methods on a large-scale image-based traffic dataset spanning multiple cities and time periods, originally featured as a NeurIPS 2021 prediction challenge. Meaningful uncertainty relating to traffic dynamics is recovered by a combination method of deep ensembles and patch-based deviations. In a case study, we demonstrate how uncertainty estimates can be employed for unsupervised outlier detection on traffic behaviour.

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Other activities
  • Reviewing: NeurIPS 2025, TMLR 2025, ICML 2025, AISTATS 2025, ICLR 2025, NeurIPS 2024 (Top Reviewer), ICCV 2023
  • Teaching & Supervision: Dominykas Šeputis (MSc Thesis/UvA), Alejandro Monroy Muñoz (MSc Thesis/UvA), Jesse Brouwers (MSc Thesis/UvA), Project AI (MSc/UvA), Human-in-the-loop ML (MSc/UvA), Introduction to ML (BSc/UvA), Derck Prinzhorn (BSc Thesis/UvA, Thesis award), Deep Learning 2 (MSc/UvA), ANOVA (MSc/ETH), Econometrics (BSc/KIT)

Source: adapted from Dharmesh Tailor's fork of Leonid Keselman's fork of John Barron's website.